It's July 17th, and we're getting closer and closer to the start of training camp. Not much has changed after last season, and while I was examining my Excel Depth Chart, if we don't trade Heatley, this may become another non-playoff season. Here are the current starting lineups.
2009-2010 Season
Forwards
Heatley - Spezza - Kovalev
Foligno - Fisher - Alfredsson
Donovan - Kelly - Shannon
Ruutu - Winchester - Neil
Zubov
Defensemen
Kuba - Campoli
Phillips - Volchenkov
Lee - Smith
Picard
Goalies
LeClaire
Elliott?
The first two lines up front are actually pretty lethal. Spezza now has two guys that he can set up cleanly. Heatley's got the one-timer and Kovalev has got the skills, especially his shortside snapshot. Jason showed under Cory Clouston last year that he can be creative and not make many mistakes. Anybody around El Capitano is due to be awesome, and Alfredsson shwoed great chemistry with Foligno and Fisher mid-way last year. Foligno and alfie are 2nd line players but Fisher is more suited in a 3rd line role, so you bet Murray would like to get a 2nd line centre before the season starts. The 3rd line shows promise, and suit their role, though don't expect much scoring from them. The 4th line is all muscle, and it may be the 1st strong 4th line we've ever seen.
The defense is the same as last year, but expect the shutdown pair of Phillips-Volchenkov to perform better sicne they are in a 2nd pairing role. Kuba and Campoli supply the offense on the first line even though Campoli is not a Top 4 Defenseman. Lee and Smith round out the last pairing and that could be a pretty reliable one. Smith showed progress in a Sens uniform under Clouston and he could be the mentor to Lee like Lawrence Nycholat was a few years back.
Goaltending may be a strong suit for the team this year. Pascal LeClaire is coming off an inury-plagued year, so there are questions about his health. However, if he is healthy, he's a best in net. With the Stars' acquisition of Alex Auld, Brian Elliott should be ready for full-time backup duty, even though he hasn't signed yet.
Reasonable Expectation: 7th to 9th
This team, even though finished strong last year even without Kovalev, still has weaknesses and there is tough competition for the last 3 spots in the East. It will be a battle between New Jersey, Buffalo, Montreal, New York Rangers, and the Sens. I think you can count Jersey in sicne their trapping method will be guaranteed in. I don't see Montreal in, just because their defense is weak in their own zone and the tandem of Price and Halak is shaky. So the last two spots in the Eastern Conference will be between Buffalo, New York, and Ottawa, if the team's current lineups persist.
What should they do?
To Edmonton: Dany Heatley, Jason Smith
To Ottawa: Andrew Cogliano, Dustin Penner, Ladislav Smid
Cogliano + Penner + Smid= $6.683 million(if Smid signs for 1.3 mil/yr, as estimates say)
Heatley + Smith= $8.100 million
Salary Cap Left= $1.417 million
To Detroit: Chris Kelly
To Ottawa: Justin Abdelkader
Kelly= $2.125 million
Abdelkader= $0.825 million
Salary Cap Left= $2.617 million
To Boston: Shean Donovan
To Ottawa: 5th round pick in 2010
Donovan= $0.625 million
Salary Cap Left= $3.242 million
To Phoenix: Alexandre Picard
To Ottawa: 4th round pick in 2010
Picard= $0.800 million
Salary Cap Left= $4.042 million
Place Schubert on Waivers
Schubert= $0.883 million
Salary Cap Left= $4.925 million
Sign Elliott to a 3 year, $3 million contract
Salary Cap Left= $3.925 million
Penner - Spezza - Kovalev
Foligno - Cogliano - Alfredsson
Abdelkader - Fisher - Shannon
Ruutu - Winchester - Neil
Zubov
Kuba - Smid
Phillips - Volchenkov
Lee - Campoli
LeClaire
Elliott
Now isn't that amazing!
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Also, Heatley>Penner, Cogliano
Smid is a 3rd pairing dman, and Campoli would top 40 points if he were to play on the top pairing.
We already have great scoring depth, with Spezza, Alfie, Heatley Kovalev, Fisher, Shannon, and Foligno... all players that could easily top 40 points (therefor making them top 6 forwards). Penner is a risk, and on the top line may not even hit 50, while Cogliano is also a risk. He has shown he can be good, but it just makes us softer through these trades. Also, if Kelly continues to progress (last year was an interruption), he can probably hit 40 points as well... He's come close before. I think if the players continue as they were under Clouston, we are an easy playoff team. Not ONE player last year improved, other than young players breaking into the league. NOT ONE. That's not because of the players, its the coach. With Clouston, they are the players that they used to be.
ALFIE is a second line player???
I believe he led our team last year in scoring.
And, the past has shown that the Sens offence runs through ALFIE, because when he is not in the lineup, our team does nothing.
ALFIE IS OUR BEST PLAYER AND IS NOT A 2ND LINE PLAYER!!!!!!!!!
1) Legit top 6 Power Forward
2) BIG top four defenceman with an almost guaranteed offensive upside.
3) Cap space & the more the better. (there's still UA's out there who could make this team a Cup threat...Tanguay, Sundin etc.)
4) A top notch prospect to compensate for the $4 mil up front payment Heatley got on July 1st.
Thing is, the longer it goes now, the better the eventual deal will be since Heatley will have to be playing in order to be an olympian and we all know his ego won't let him miss the second biggest show.
I think we'll be o.k. with what we've got to start the season at least and who knows...maybe Zubov, Zack Smith, Regin or even Karlssen will turn out to be pleasant surprises. Trading Heatley after a terrific olympic performance could stock this team for years to come. Better to hold on for a bit than to take players like Penner & Cogliano who have a bunch of question marks surrounding them.
- Brampton's Biggest Sens Fan
Suddenly what was basically our 2nd line last year becomes our third, and I have to believe they would be amazing as a third line.
If we can move heater before the season, things are definitely looking up in sens land finally.
pg
- Brampton's Biggest Sens Fan
Would you say Fisher has more intangibles than the average 40-50 point scorer? In terms of grinding out the puck, playing the boards, etc,?
Would you say that every year other than this past year he has scored at an average of a 55pt. pace for the past 3 years?
So we can surmise that Fisher is a 50-60 point player if he plays a full season.
Then, we can assume that 180 forwards got 40+ points, making them all top 6 forwards, per se. Factor in Fisher's great intangibles, and the fact that he will score closer to 50pts any year, and he's easily a top 6 forward. People over-rate "top 6" and "top line"... Top line is around 60 pts., top 6 is around 40, with obvious additions and subtractions due to intangibles and other skills.
If that trade had gone through I honestly believe we could have become one of the top teams in the East this year. *Sigh* now I'm depressed;)